Let’s start with a simple observation.
Most scratch prizes tend to be claimed at roughly the same pace.
Not perfectly. But close.
Here’s what I mean.
As tickets sell, prizes get claimed.
And over time, the percent of prizes remaining at each prize level usually stays pretty aligned.
If about 50% of tickets have been sold, you’ll often see roughly 50% of each prize level remaining.
If about 80% of tickets are gone, you’ll usually see around 20% of prizes left across the board.
It creates a kind of steady, predictable pattern.
That’s what you’re seeing in this image.
The percentages of each prize level remaining are all fairly close.
No prize level is sticking out.
And that’s actually important.
Because before you can spot something unusual, you need to know what normal looks like.
But more often than not, prize levels tend to mirror each other as a game ages.
Our goal isn’t to chase every game.
It’s to observe patterns…
and then pay attention when something breaks from them.
You can start exploring this yourself by looking at % prizes remaining inside individual games.
Next week, we’ll take this one step further and talk about outliers — the moments when one prize level doesn’t follow the crowd.
That’s where things start to get interesting.
Play smart.
Have fun.
And never risk more than you can afford.
– Jared
